I spend a lot of time in the cinema – partly for work and partly because I like movies – meaning that by the time awards season rolls around, I have generally seen everything nominated. This year is no exception, and I must admit the Oscar nominees threw out a few curveballs. I definitely know which film deserves to win for cinematic achievement, but I doubt it will. While Sinners was one of my favourite films of last year, and has a record-breaking 16 nominations, I cannot see the Academy granting it the coveted statuette – although I think it will clean up in other categories.

What works against it is the fact that it is being referred to in blanket terms as a “vampire movie”. The last time a horror movie – and I use the phrase tenuously – won best picture was The Silence of the Lambs in 1992. However, Sinners is far more than a horror movie. It uses the vampire conceit to engage the audience in what is, at its heart, a revenge thriller that highlights race and discrimination issues dressed up in a “good vs evil” concept.

Unlike other “worthy” movies, which feel the need to include 20 minutes of exposition to get across their message (I’m looking at you, James Cameron), this manages to be both fun and thought-provoking.

I could go into a very deep analysis about how it draws parallels with things happening in modern-day America, but why bother? At the end of the day, it is extremely entertaining. Which is what movies are supposed to be. If you don’t get the underlying message, that’s fine. But I guarantee you will. And I guarantee you will have conversations about it.

When movies are at their absolute best, they address serious issues without hammering the point home. At the end of the day, they are entertainment. And Sinners just gets this. I would love to see Ryan Cogler and the cast and crew lifting the Best Picture Oscar, but I actually think it will go to One Battle After Another.

I was not a fan of this movie. I didn’t completely hate it, but in my opinion, it outstayed its welcome and ran out of steam. At two hours and 42 minutes, it is far too long and rambling and would have benefited from having 30 minutes shaved off the running time and a tighter edit.

There are some good performances and nice moments, but it feels like they decided the longer the running time, the worthier the movie. I have nothing against long movies – I’ll happily watch an over three-hour film once the story is being driven along. I just didn’t feel that was the case here, and it disappointed me. However, it is the kind of movie the Academy generally love – a star-studded cast and an acclaimed director (Paul Thomas Anderson) who has never won an Oscar despite numerous nominations.  The fact that it is long and rambling will most likely prove inconsequential to voters.

The only other movie I feel is in with a serious shot of winning would be Marty Supreme. There is a lot of love for this flick, and while I enjoyed it, I don’t think it is a masterpiece or anywhere near on a par with Sinners. But it could prove a surprise upset.

So, what do I think of the remaining nominees? Unpopular opinion, but I found Hament dreary. Frankenstein looked great (and I adore Guillermo del Toro’s work), but I felt this was style over substance. The Secret Agent was good, but didn’t feel like it belonged here. Sentimental Value is a beautiful movie that deserves a watch (and I’m a big Stellan Skarsgård fan), but I think it is too, well, sentimental to be considered. It has some absolutely fabulous performances, though, and Elle Fanning should definitely be a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress.

I enjoyed Bugonia – until the last 10 minutes when I thought they overplayed their hand. I saw this at a very early screening before release, so I was not influenced by outside hype or reviews. Without spoiling it, until that point, a question was left hanging for the audience, and it felt like an organic finish. The final few minutes ruined it for me, and I was surprised to see it on the list. Again, I saw a very early preview, so I was not influenced in my opinion by outside sources. And finally, I just found it very hard to engage with Train Dreams – but that is on me. Despite that, I can see its merits, but I think it is highly unlikely Academy members will vote it to win.