Vladimir Putin has his sights on a “very vulnerable” European country if the war in Ukraine does come to an end, an expert has warned. Tim Wilsey, a professor at King’s College London, has predicted what the Russian President’s next steps could be, warning he is unlikely to stop with Ukraine. 

The former diplomat said he believes there is a “really good chance” Moscow will get a “favourable deal” in US-led negotiations to end the full-scale Ukraine war, which is approaching its fourth anniversary. NATO nations are ramping up their defence spending amid concerns over the threat posed by Russia, with the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte in 2025 warning Moscow could launch an attack on NATO within the next five years. The Baltics have generally been considered the most likely to come under threat; however, Mr Wilsey suggested another European nation could be at risk.

Speaking to The Sun, the professor said he believes Mr Putin “will go for Moldova” following any deal to end the fighting in Ukraine.

He said a stop in the hostilities will give Mr Putin the chance to “recover” Russia’s military, which is in a “dreadful state”, adding he expects this will take three years.

“I don’t think for a moment that Putin’s project is finished,” he warned

Mr Wilsey said he also expects to see Russian meddling in politics, as well as “sabotage, assassination, use of drones over airports”.

Moldova, unlike many of its neighbours, is not a part of NATO or the EU.

The former Soviet republic has aligned itself with the West; however, the separatist region of Transnistria, which broke away from Moldova in 1990, is pro-Russian.

The region is a narrow strip of land sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, and is home to a Russian military base where around 1,500 troops are stationed.

Since the war in Ukraine started, several developments in Transnistria have led some to draw parallels to the separatist movement by pro-Moscow factions in eastern Ukraine that paved the way for Russia’s full-scale assault.

Some 200,000 of the breakaway region’s around half a million people are Russian citizens who feel a close connection to Russia, though most are also Moldovan citizens.

In 2006, more than 95% of voters in a Transnistria referendum said they wanted to join Russia, but the ballot wasn’t internationally recognised.

Transnistria’s independence isn’t recognised internationally, but it is supported politically, economically and militarily by Russia.

Mr Wilsey also identified the Estonian border town of Narva, which has a significant Russian population, as another potential flashpoint to look out for.

Referring to recent concerns over Washington’s commitment to NATO, he told The Sun: “Do we really believe that the United States is going to go to war for one town in Estonia? I’m not sure I do anymore.”